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3/08/2014

Swiss Franc Rises With Yen Before U.S. Payrolls Data

The Swiss franc and Japanese yen climbed against most counterparts before U.S. jobs data today. Corn jumped to a six-month high, Indonesia’s rupiah gained and European stocks were little changed after a global equity rally that’s added $523 billion to markets this week.

The franc climbed 0.2 percent versus the dollar at 8:16 a.m. in London and the yen strengthened 0.2 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index traded at 336.93 from 337.28 yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent while bond risk in the region fell to an 11 week low.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures climbed 0.1 percent and the rupiah strengthened to the highest since November. Corn and nickel gained amid concern supply may be hurt by tensions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Global stocks are trading at their most expensive level this year, with MSCI’s gauge of world equities up 0.7 percent in a fifth week of gains, as concern eases that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine will spark a broader conflict. Economists project payrolls data will show hiring rose last month to a level below last year’s average amid frigid weather.

China’s onshore bond market had its first default today as the country’s top lawmakers hold their annual policy-setting meeting in Beijing.

“We have a temporary relief as the situation in Ukraine seems to be contained so the markets are unwinding risk premiums,” said Wee-Khoon Chong, Singapore-based head of rates strategy Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest brokerage. “In the U.S., most bad data seems to be related to bad weather, implying the outlook remains relatively good.

We don’t think China’s first onshore default will have a systemic financial risk. It might boost market confidence because allowing a default could be seen a part of reforms.”

Payrolls Survey

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. probably increased by 149,000 workers in February while the unemployment rate held at 6.6 percent, according to the median of economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Payrolls climbed by a monthly average of 193,500 in 2013. Data yesterday showed claims for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low last week, stoking speculation U.S. companies are confident economic growth will rebound after harsh winter weather depressed demand. The franc was at 87.85 centimes per dollar and 1.2185 to the euro.

The yen was at 102.85 against the greenback. The MSCI All-Country World Index has recovered to a six-year high after falling the most in a month March 3 as Russia seized control of Ukraine’s Crimea region.

The gauge rose every other day this week. In Europe, Telecom Italia S.p.A slid 2.1 percent after the phone company scrapped its dividend for the first time ever as it reported a wider-than-estimated 2013 net loss as sales missed analyst projections.

Asia Gauge

Fraport AG, operator of Germany’s Frankfurt Airport, fell 0.6 percent after it reported earnings that missed estimates and projected 2014 profit “slightly above” last year. Five companies advanced for every four that fell on MSCI’s Asia-Pacific gauge, which has risen every week since the period ended Feb. 7. All 10 industry groups increased.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) lost 0.2 percent as a measure of Chinese companies listed in the city added 0.4 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index swung between a gain of 1 percent and losses of 0.2 percent as it capped its first advance in three weeks. Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. won’t make an interest payment in full by today’s deadline, the company’s vice president Liu Tielong said.

The company blames the failure of an agreement to sell a power station to Greece for its failure to meet interest payments, state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported, citing an unidentified person at Chaori.

Yuan Gains

The first onshore default comes as China’s benchmark rate for loans between lenders was set for the biggest weekly drop this year after the central bank scaled back cash withdrawals in its money-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China drained a net 70 billion yuan ($11.4 billion) this week via sales of repurchase agreements, Bloomberg data showed. That’s the smallest amount since the week-long Lunar New Year holiday ended Feb. 6.

China’s yuan rose a fourth day today and is headed for its biggest weekly advance in two years after recording its steepest drop on record last week.

Indonesia’s rupiah rose to the highest since November and is heading for a gain of 1.6 percent this week, making it the best performing Asian currency versus the dollar in the last five days.India’s rupee is on track for its largest weekly increase since December.

High-Yield

“Overall the U.S. data has been surprising on the downside because of the bad weather,” Sim Moh Siong, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd.

“So this had led to some expectation that perhaps the Fed may be less aggressive in terms of tapering. This has benefited the Asian currencies, especially high-yielding ones like the rupiah and rupee. Risk sentiment improved as the Ukraine crisis cooled.”

Corn advanced 1 percent to a six-month high and was poised for a bull market as demand for exports from the U.S., the top shipper, accelerated. Ukraine’s escalating turmoil is signaling that importers will opt for more American supplies, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

Corn climbed 19 percent through yesterday from this year’s settlement low in January, partly because of declining prospects for South American crops.

Ukraine’s hryvnia surged 8.9 percent this week, the best performing currency in the world, as it rebounded from record lows last week, according to Bloomberg data. Russia needs to back down on Ukraine or face rising pressure from the U.S. and its allies, President Barack Obama said.

Micex, Ruble

Obama’s administration restricted visas for Ukrainian and Russian officials who it says are threatening the former Soviet republic’s sovereignty. Lawmakers in Ukraine’s Crimea region called a referendum to return the Black Sea peninsula to Russian control.

Russia’s Micex Index dropped 1.1 percent today, heading for its biggest weekly loss since May 2012. The ruble weakened 0.4 percent. The yield on benchmark government ruble bonds due February 2027 jumped 38 basis points this week to 8.74 percent, the highest since June 2012.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield increased 7 basis points to 4.16 percent today as Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated that he sees a “period of stability in interest rates.”

The cost of insuring Asian corporate and sovereign bonds from default fell to the lowest since Dec. 20 today and is heading for a fifth straight weekly decline. U.S. equity exchange-traded funds saw net inflows of $8.93 billion in the five days through March 5, while fixed income funds were reduced by $7.26 billion, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

bloomberg.com

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