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11/15/2013

Eurozone economic recovery falters in third quarter

The eurozone's economic woes persisted in the third quarter as Italy's longest recession continued and a contraction in French output dragged growth down to 0.1%.


In the summer, hopes of a strong recovery were boosted by a second-quarter GDP rise of 0.3%, but the momentum of the first half of the year has fizzled out.

The figures gave weight to fears that high unemployment, low inflation and disagreements among political leaders over further moves towards integration will keep the currency zone locked into a prolonged period of low growth.

In France, a slump in exports and business investment failed to offset strong consumer spending to leave François Hollande's socialist administration to cope with a 0.1% decline in GDP.

Italy, which has faced prolonged period of political instability, was also mired in economic gloom after a 0.1% decline in GDP in the third quarter extended the country's recession from the summer of 2011 to nine quarters.

Of the smaller eurozone members, Austria returned to growth after a flat summer period with a 0.2% rise in GDP, while the Netherlands, which also flatlined in the summer, nudge 0.1% higher and Finland managed a 0.4% expansion.

German growth fell from 0.7% in the second quarter to 0.3%, though several analysts said the eurozone's powerhouse economy was merely returning to its expected annualised rate of 1.2% a year.

Chris Williamson, chief European economist at financial data provider Markit, said the figures went "a long way to vindicate the European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates to re-stimulate growth across the single currency area".

Last week the ECB cut the headline interest rate to 0.25% from 0.5% in a shock move that was warmly welcomed in most eurozone capitals but was attacked by several German officials as unnecessary and undermining the strength of the single currency union.

Williamson said the underlying trend showed the region's recovery "remained on track at the start of the fourth quarter, although the upturn continues to look both fragile and weak".

The October Markit survey of purchasing managers across the eurozone remained at a level consistent with just 0.2% quarterly GDP growth, "though most importantly it has signalled a marked turnaround in the region's economic health compared to the start of the year".

The slow recovery means the eurozone is still 3% smaller than its pre-crisis peak. Only Germany among the larger states has exceeded its previous high, with GDP up 2.6%.

"The French economy remains 0.3% smaller, while Spain and Italy are also 7.4% and 9.1% smaller respectively.

By comparison, the UK economy is still 2.5% smaller than is pre-crisis peak while the US is 5.3% larger. Japan has edged 0.1% up on its prior peak," he said.

theguardian.com

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