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10/13/2011

Jobless fall reduces need for rate cut

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan will have something else to brag about when he catches up with his G20 counterparts this weekend - Australia's jobless rate is on the decline again.

Having steadily risen since April, new data on Thursday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 5.2 per cent in September as 20,400 people joined the workforce, double the amount forecast by economists.

Economists, who had expected the jobless rate to stay at the August level of 5.3 per cent, say the result lessens the need for an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its Melbourne Cup Day board meeting next month.

Comments by the central bank after last week's board meeting, indicating that the inflation outlook had improved, had stirred talk of an imminent rate cut.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard said around 750,000 jobs had been created since Labor came to office in 2007.

"Having a robust economy that can create jobs isn't a matter of accident," Ms Gillard told parliament.

She was expressing the virtues of the House of Representatives passing the government's climate change polices this week, and holding up the latest jobs data as an example of "painstaking" reforms over generations.

"It's not a matter of neglect, not a matter of autopilot. It talks careful and continued policy work and reform."

The number of full-time workers rose by 10,800 in September, while part-timers increased by 9600 to a record high.

National Australia Bank senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos believes the recent run of data argues against a November interest rate cut.

He said that while the September quarter inflation data on October 26 would decide the issue, retail sales, building approvals, housing finance and international trade data over the past week had all topped expectations, while consumer and business confidence had improved.

"With the economic outlook having improved rather than deteriorated since the RBA meeting last week, it strengthens the case to remain on hold for longer," he said.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Australia and its Asia-Pacific neighbours that policymakers faced a "delicate balancing act" between concerns over the global growth outlook and high inflation pressures.

In its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook released on Thursday in Tokyo, the Washington-based institution cautioned that risks for the area were "decidedly tilted" to the downside.

"An escalation of the euro area financial turbulence and a more severe slowdown than anticipated in the United States would have clear macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia," the IMF said.

"While domestic demand remains strong, Asia has clearly not `decoupled' from advanced economies."

Mr Swan, who jetted off to Paris on Thursday to attend the G20 finance ministers meeting, said the gathering came at a critical time, with the world's biggest growth engines - Europe and the US - misfiring at the same time, hitting confidence and causing major volatility in global markets.

"I will reinforce how critical it is for European leaders to speak with a united voice and take decisive action to get their fiscal positions on a sustainable footing, while supporting short-term growth where possible," Mr Swan said in a statement.

He reiterated that while the Australian economy and the budget was not immune to global instability its "strong fundamentals mean we remain better placed than almost all other advanced economies".

In the UK the jobless rate is 8.1 per cent while in the euro zone the worst figure is for Spain at 21.4 per cent.

The G20 talks will make the final preparations for the G20 Leaders meeting in Cannes next month.

Source: http://news.smh.com.au

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